What is a recession?

What is a Recession

A recession involves at least two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP. GDP is one of the primary indicators used to gauge the health of a country’s economy. It represents the total value of all goods and services produced over a specific time period. USA, China, Japan, Germany & the UK have the largest GDP’s around the world  as of 2016. The GDP calculation is a measure of consumer spending + business investment + government spending + net exports.

History of Recession

The international Monetary Fund defines a global recession as a decline in annual per-capita real World GDP. Since WW2 there were only 4 global recessions. In (1975, 1982, 1991 & 2009), all of them lasting about a year. In 1970 and 1998 there was annual GDP growth rate of 3% or less which can also be considered as a recession. It is difficult to define, due to the GDP growth of developed and developing countries being so different. The IMF estimates that global recessions occur over a cycle lasting around 8-10 years.

Where are we now

Global GDP is estimated to have grown by 3.09% in 2015 and looks to grow to 3.16% in 2016 with recovery being mainly driven by developing economies. The US is experiencing small growth in GDP at around 1.2% per quarter and China is  experiencing growth at around the 6.5% per quarter level. The real worry looks to be Japan who are the 3rd largest economy. After seeing a 0.02% expansion in the first quarter of 2016 and with their economy relying heavily on QE, it seems like it’s just a matter of time until their  spiral hits rock bottom. That could have a massive impact on the worlds economic status.

At some point in the near future we will enter another recession. Factors such as Brexit, the Japanese debt crisis, curtailing consumer spending and the ridiculous US presidential election could all be worthy catalysts to send the world back into near negative economic growth. The housing bubble in the UK has so far remained glossy, but with the amount of new building projects in London alone at a super high level prices will be coming down due to over saturation of the market. No one knows when any of this will happen but it is inevitable. You just have to ensure your skills are sharpened so your job is secure and if you can save money for that moment when the price of everything drops you can find yourself a bargain.

Are bullets more Jamaican than Usain Bolt?

 

In 2015 there were 1192 murders in Jamaica. The country had about 45 slayings per 100,000 people in 2015 keeping it ranked as one of the world’s most violent countries. By comparison Chicago, which has roughly the same population as Jamaica, around 2.7 million, had 468 killings in 2015. With the recent Olympics showcasing the physical superiority of some of Jamaica’s athletes, the darker side to real Jamaican  issues gets pushed aside. Usain Bolt has brought a lot of attention to Jamaica but he gets more attention as an individual than the Country as a whole.

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Banking stress tests

What is a stress test in banking

A stress test in the land of finance is an analysis or simulation designed to determine the ability a financial instrument has to deal with an economic crisis. Usually projections are based on the best case scenarios. We’ve all seen Dragons Den for example, where the pitcher is asked about yearly projections, Yr1,2,3. These estimates are based on hitting targets, growing workforce & consistent economy etc. In the lucrative world of banking the following is usually considered in a stress test;

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Why black lives don’t matter to most people

There has been a lot of talk about the Black Lives Matter movement  since extra light has been shed on the unjust killings of black men by white policemen in America. The movement started with campaigning against violence towards black people after the hashtag #BlackLivesMatter became popular on social media when George Zimmerman was acquitted of murdering Trayvon Martin, a black teen, in 2013.

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Skepta the Mastermind

Skepta aka Joseph Junior Adenuga born in 1982  is an MC from Tottenham North London. He started his musical career as a DJ and began to develop his own sound as part of the roll deep crew with his brother JME. Grime was still underground at this stage and a lot of the music and MC’s sounded the same. Skepta didn’t really stand out at this point as Wiley, Kano and Dizzee Rascal became the evolving faces of the scene. Skepta branched out to form Boy Better Know which was a truly independent record label. From here Skepta’s originality and audible proficiency was showcased on a variety of singles, mix-tapes and clashes. The sound remained within genre, with typical grime beats and a jabbing flow. Listen to ‘Microphone champion’ and you can see the potential of the artist swallowed up by what the status-quo expected from a grime artists at the time. This is why the grime scene stayed stagnant for so long.

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Donald Trumps most sincere speech

Propaganda is so powerful these days  that the media can make you believe anything. Especially in the weird and wonderful world of politics. With the up and coming US presidential election we have been given a delectable bad guy in the form of Donald Trump who is most famous for the Celebrity apprentice TV show. We have always known him to speak his mind, and in the current debates he has been given a platform to showcase his borderline bigotry and the whole world ran with it. Trump speaks as a lone wolf amongst controlled monsters who spout corporate rhetoric in the hope of receiving votes. He is different and will have a tough time if he is to win. He has however, had some progressive things to say in his speeches and debates.

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